Research

Research Interests

My research focuses on the intersection of economic history, technological change, and long-run economic development. I am particularly interested in:

• The role of renewable energy sources (especially water power) in historical economic development
• Technology adoption and path dependence during industrialization
• The relationship between energy infrastructure and human capital formation
• Comparative economic development during the Industrial Revolution

Dissertation

Title: Renewable Energy in the Industrial Revolution
Supervisors: Alan Fernihough and Christopher Colvin
Institution: Queen’s University Belfast
Expected completion: 2026

Working Papers and Works in Progress

• “Water mills and human capital accumulation in industrialising Prussia”
  Revise and Resubmit at Explorations in Economic History
  Abstract

  Did Germany's industrial rise begin with its water mills? This study examines how water mills shaped early industrial development in Prussia using historical county-level census data. I show that water-powered proto-industrialization fostered skilled artisanal human capital by the mid-nineteenth century. Unlike wind or animal-powered mills, water mills supported diverse industries, driving technological spillovers and early industrialization. Counties with more water mills saw faster population growth, though this effect declined with the adoption of coal and steam. These findings underscore water power's role in Germany's industrial rise, and suggest that water-driven industrialization was a broader European phenomenon, not unique to Britain.
• “Leapfrogging or path dependence? Water mills and long-run growth in the Scottish Industrial Revolution”
  Work in progress
  Abstract

  Does technological change favor agile entrants or adaptable incumbents? I examine this using Scotland’s industrialization, testing whether steam power allowed new locations to "leapfrog" centers of water power. Using a newly constructed dataset linking over 1,200 pre-industrial mills to parish-level outcomes, and an instrumental variable strategy based on geographic endowments, I reject the leapfrogging hypothesis. An additional mill in 1755 caused 8% higher long-run population growth (driven by migration), with effects intensifying precisely when steam power became abundant. Micro-evidence reveals that hydraulically advantaged mill sites largely survived, transitioned to industrial production and avoided obsolescence by integrating steam power as a complementary technology. The findings demonstrate that proto-industrial water power provided the critical infrastructure and human capital for the steam age, challenging the view that coal endowments alone determined the industrial map.
• “Mapping the Malthusian bound: a first-nature index of European city growth”
  Work in progress
  Abstract

  How much of pre-industrial urban growth was dictated by the land? This project introduces a strictly exogenous Economic Potential index to test the Malthusian limits of pre-industrial Europe. To construct this baseline, I calibrate an algorithmic routing model against empirical historical transport costs. Applied to high-resolution spatial rasters of physical geography and caloric yield, this generates a purely "first-nature" friction surface, mapping the accessible agricultural capacity for historical urban centers while strictly ignoring endogenous man-made networks. By evaluating panel city populations against this computational geographic ceiling, I estimates the Malthusian elasticity of urbanization. Cities that significantly deviate from their computed endowments provide a clean, replicable measure of where institutions, trade and agglomeration drove economic divergence.