Research

Research Interests

My research lies at the intersection of economic history, technological change, and long-run development. I am particularly interested in:

• Energy systems and technological change, especially the transition from water power to steam
• Path dependence and adaptation in economic landscapes
• Practical human capital, technical knowledge, and the formation of local productive capabilities
• Comparative and spatial patterns of development during European industrialisation and beyond

Dissertation

Title: Water, Wheels, and the Wealth of Nations: Geography and Path Dependence in European Industrialization
Supervisors: Alan Fernihough and Christopher Colvin
Institution: Queen’s University Belfast
PhD viva: 21 October 2026 (passed with no corrections; highest possible outcome)

Publications

• “Water mills and human capital accumulation in industrialising Prussia”
  Explorations in Economic History, vol. 101 (2026), article no. 101767.
  Article | Replication Files
  Abstract

  Did Germany's industrial rise begin with its water mills? This study examines how water mills shaped early industrial development in Prussia using historical county-level census data. I show that water-powered proto-industrialization fostered skilled artisanal human capital by the mid-nineteenth century. Unlike wind or animal-powered mills, water mills supported diverse industries, driving technological spillovers and early industrialization. Counties with more water mills saw faster population growth, though this effect declined with the adoption of coal and steam. These findings underscore water power's role in Germany's industrial rise, and suggest that water-driven industrialization was a broader European phenomenon, not unique to Britain.

You can also find my articles on my Google Scholar profile.

Job Market Paper & Working Papers

• “Leapfrogging or path dependence? Water mills and long-run growth in the Scottish Industrial Revolution”
  Job Market Paper (Download)
  Award: New Researcher Prize, Economic History Society (2026)
  Abstract

  Does technological change favor agile entrants or adaptable incumbents? I examine this using Scotland’s industrialization, testing whether steam power allowed new locations to "leapfrog" centers of water power. Using a newly constructed dataset linking over 1,200 pre-industrial mills to parish-level outcomes, and an instrumental variable strategy based on geographic endowments, I reject the leapfrogging hypothesis. An additional mill in 1755 caused 8% higher long-run population growth (driven by migration), with effects intensifying precisely when steam power became abundant. Micro-evidence reveals that hydraulically advantaged mill sites largely survived, transitioned to industrial production and avoided obsolescence by integrating steam power as a complementary technology. The findings demonstrate that proto-industrial water power provided the critical infrastructure and human capital for the steam age, challenging the view that coal endowments alone determined the industrial map.
• “Market Access Without Roads: First-Nature Geography and European City Growth, 700–1800”
  Work in progress
  Abstract

  How much of pre-industrial urban growth was determined by geography? This paper develops an exogenous measure of market access based solely on first-nature geography for more than 2,200 European cities. This allows the geographic component of urban growth between 700 and 1800 to be isolated from infrastructure and other non-geographic drivers of urban development. A one percent increase in the resulting Economic Potential Index raises city population by 0.16 percent, an elasticity that weakens through the medieval period before recovering to 0.25 by 1700. First-nature geography thus emerges as a real but modest determinant of city size. Applying this to the Little Divergence shows that British and Dutch cities held high latent geographic potential yet persistently underrealised it before 1500. They only closed the gap with French cities as Atlantic trade intensified, likely acting as an institutional or commercial catalyst.